Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small downward moves for the next PWLB reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.140% (-3bp) — Front-end drifting lower.
• → 10y: 4.777% (-4bp) — Belly softens in line with short end.
• → 30y: 5.496% (-4bp) — Long end also easing, curve broadly parallel.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 4.99% (-2bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.33% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.82% (-2bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.37% (-2bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.47% (-2bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.26% (-2bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → No single clear driver in today's inputs.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → Treasury Gilt 2036 Auction — Actual: 4.86% vs Previous: 5.03% (LOW) — Lower auction yield, but not a major driver for gilts today.

Still due today

• → 13:30 — USD Building Permits Prel — Forecast: 1.42M — unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.
• → 13:30 — USD Housing Starts — Forecast: 1.43M — after the PWLB reset.

Next 48 hours

• → Wed 07:00 — GBP Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.0%
• → Wed 19:00 — USD Fed Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%

Curve is drifting gently lower; no major catalyst in play. Keep an eye on tomorrow's UK inflation print for the next potential inflection.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every day were this straightforward.