PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset modestly higher this morning, with 2–4bp increases seen across all key maturities.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB AM rates rose by 2–4bp across the curve, with no single maturity standing out.
PWLB edges up: modest parallel shift as market digests quiet data
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.97% | +2bp |
| 3y | 5.13% | +4bp |
| 5y | 5.29% | +4bp |
| 10y | 5.77% | +4bp |
| 25y | 6.39% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.20% | +3bp |
Modest, parallel upward shift across the curve; no pronounced steepening or flattening.
What Moved
- → Broad-based move — All key maturities rose by 2–4bp, with no single segment leading.
- → No curve distortion — The increase was consistent across short, medium, and long tenors.
Context
- → BoE mortgage approvals — 56.2K (Forecast: 62.9K, Previous: 66K); below expectations, but not a major surprise for gilts.
- → M4 Money Supply — 0.10% (Forecast: 0.20%, Previous: 0.20%); marginally softer than forecast.
- → News flow light — No major UK macro or gilt-specific headlines driving the move.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → BoE Mortgage Approvals — 56.2K (Forecast: 62.9K, Previous: 66K); below forecast, but not a major market mover.
- → M4 Money Supply MoM — 0.10% (Forecast: 0.20%, Previous: 0.20%); slightly softer than expected.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 30 Jun 07:45: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.40%
- → Tue 30 Jun 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.40%
- → Tue 30 Jun 13:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.50%
- → Tue 30 Jun 15:00: USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 7.28M
- → Wed 01 Jul 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.0%
- → Wed 01 Jul 14:00: USD Fed Chair Warsh Speech
- → Wed 01 Jul 15:00: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 53.7
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates nudged up by 2–4bp at this morning’s reset, with the move evenly spread across the curve. The market is drifting modestly higher in the absence of any major UK data or news flow. If you are watching for the next reset, keep in mind that today’s moves are incremental rather than directional. No curve distortions to flag at this stage.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the office kettle.