PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed at the AM reset, with moves of just 1–2bp lower across the curve and no material shift in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates are down 1–2bp across all maturities at the 09:09 reset, with no significant curve movement and no major data or news driving the change.
PWLB edges down: 1–2bp dip as markets tread water
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.96% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.14% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.32% | -1bp |
| 10y | 5.83% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.46% | -2bp |
| 50y | 6.28% | -2bp |
Parallel move lower of 1–2bp across the curve; no material steepening or flattening.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
CONTEXT
- → UK data releases this morning were low impact — Services PMI (48.8, in line), Composite PMI (49.3, in line), and DMP Output Price Expectations (4.10%, slightly above forecast) all came in close to expectations.
- → No significant UK macro news flow — Market commentary is focused on global equity strength and oil market developments, with little direct impact on gilts or PWLB rates.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → DMP 3M Output Price Expectations: 4.10% (Forecast: 3.90%, Previous: 4.0%) — Slightly above forecast, but not market-moving.
- → S&P Global Services PMI Final: 48.8 (Forecast: 48.7, Previous: 49.3) — In line with expectations, no surprise for rates.
- → S&P Global Composite PMI Final: 49.3 (Forecast: 49.4, Previous: 49.7) — In line, muted impact.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 16:00: BoE Gov Bailey Speech (MEDIUM) — No forecast; unlikely to move rates unless unexpected remarks.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Mon 6 Jul 15:00: USD ISM Services PMI — Forecast: 54
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have ticked down by 1–2bp at the AM reset, with no meaningful shift in curve shape or direction. This is a quiet session, with no significant data or news driving movement. Next scheduled event is the BoE Governor's speech at 16:00, but unless there is a surprise, the afternoon reset is likely to remain subdued.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the coffee in the treasury kitchen.