PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have moved modestly higher across the curve at the AM reset, with increases of 2–5bp and the long end seeing the largest shift.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB AM rates reset 2–5bp higher, with the 50-year up 5bp; no single data release stands out as a clear driver.
PWLB edges up: modest parallel shift as curve lifts 2–5bp
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.97% | +2bp |
| 3y | 5.16% | +3bp |
| 5y | 5.35% | +4bp |
| 10y | 5.86% | +4bp |
| 25y | 6.50% | +4bp |
| 50y | 6.32% | +5bp |
Parallel upward shift, with the largest move at the 50-year point.
What Moved
- → Modest parallel shift — 2–5bp increases across all key tenors, with the long end (50y) leading at +5bp.
- → No material divergence — curve shape broadly preserved; no marked steepening or flattening.
Context
- → Lloyds House Price Index (June) — MoM actual +0.20% (forecast +0.10%, prev -0.20%); YoY actual +0.60% (forecast +0.30%, prev +0.50%). Slightly firmer than expected, but not a major gilt driver.
- → News flow — No significant macro or BoE news impacting gilts this morning; broader market commentary remains focused on global themes.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Lloyds House Price Index MoM — Actual: +0.20% (Forecast: +0.10%, Previous: -0.20%). Slightly firmer than forecast, but not a major market mover.
- → Lloyds House Price Index YoY — Actual: +0.60% (Forecast: +0.30%, Previous: +0.50%). Marginally above expectations.
Remaining Today
- → 10:00 — Treasury Gilt 2033 Auction (Previous: 4.55%)
- → 10:00 — BBA Mortgage Rate (Forecast: 6.60%, Previous: 6.60%)
- → 10:30 — BoE Financial Stability Report
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 8 Jul 19:00: USD FOMC Minutes — Forecast: data not available
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have nudged 2–5bp higher at the AM fix, with the 50-year up 5bp and the rest of the curve moving in parallel. This means any borrowing locked in this morning will be modestly more expensive than yesterday's close. No single data release stands out as a driver, and news flow is quiet. Watch for further movement at the PM reset if gilt yields react to upcoming auction results or the BoE report.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.