PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher at the AM fix, with 5–8bp increases across the curve as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices dominate the backdrop.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates rose 5–8bp across all maturities, driven by a surge in gilt yields amid escalating Middle East conflict and higher oil prices.
PWLB rates jump as oil and geopolitics rattle gilts
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.02% | +5bp |
| 3y | 5.23% | +7bp |
| 5y | 5.42% | +8bp |
| 10y | 5.93% | +7bp |
| 25y | 6.56% | +6bp |
| 50y | 6.37% | +6bp |
Parallel upward shift: 5–8bp increases across all maturities, led by the 5y and 10y sectors.
What Moved
- → Front-end and belly — 1y to 10y rates rose 5–8bp, with the 5y sector posting the largest move (+8bp).
- → Long-end — 25y and 50y rates up 6bp, mirroring the parallel move.
- → No divergence — The move is broad-based, with no significant curve steepening or flattening.
Context
- → Escalating Middle East conflict — US airstrikes on Iran and the revocation of waivers for Iranian oil sales have driven oil prices sharply higher, with Brent up as much as 3% overnight.
- → Global risk-off tone — Equity markets in Asia and Europe are under pressure, with FTSE 100 futures lower and Asian indices falling on geopolitical and commodity price concerns.
- → No UK data yet — No domestic economic releases so far this morning; market moves are entirely news-driven.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
- → 19:00 USD FOMC Minutes: High impact; market will watch for any signals on Fed policy stance.
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 09 Jul 07:00: EUR Balance of Trade — Forecast: NaN
- → Wed 09 Jul 15:00: USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 4.2M
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset 5–8bp higher across all maturities at the morning fix, with the 5y and 10y sectors leading the move. This is a broad, parallel shift driven by external geopolitical shocks, not domestic data. If you are considering transactions, be aware that the next reset will reflect any further gilt volatility as markets digest the latest Middle East developments and tonight's FOMC minutes. Monitor intraday gilt moves closely if timing is critical.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — keeping you level-headed when the curve is anything but.