PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower this morning, with a modest parallel move down of 2–4bp across the curve.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates fell by 2–4bp at the 09:05 AM reset, with no major domestic data or news flow driving the move.
PWLB nudges lower as markets drift, news flow stays muted
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.16% | -4bp |
| 3y | 5.39% | -3bp |
| 5y | 5.56% | -3bp |
| 10y | 6.03% | -3bp |
| 25y | 6.63% | -2bp |
| 50y | 6.44% | -2bp |
Mild parallel shift lower across the curve; no material steepening or flattening.
What Moved
- → Front-end and belly — 1y to 10y tenors all down 3–4bp, reflecting a modest parallel move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates down 2bp, slightly less than the short end.
Context
- → No significant UK data released so far today — Only event so far is the Chancellor's Mansion House speech (01:00), which is not market-moving for gilts.
- → News flow is light — No major macro headlines or market shocks affecting UK rates this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30 USD PPI MoM: Forecast 0.0% (Prev 1.10%) — US inflation data, but only likely to impact gilts if a major surprise occurs.
- → 15:00 USD Fed Chair Warsh Testimony: High impact for global rates, but no UK-specific expectations flagged.
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 16 Jul 07:00: GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: 0.10%
- → Wed 16 Jul 07:00: GBP GDP YoY — Forecast: 1.40%
- → Wed 16 Jul 07:00: GBP Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: -0.20%
- → Wed 16 Jul 07:00: GBP Industrial Production MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have drifted down by 2–4bp across all maturities at this morning's reset, with no major data or news behind the move. The direction is lower, but the move is modest and broad-based. If you're watching for the next reset, keep in mind that upcoming UK GDP and production data tomorrow morning could provide more direction.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing falling faster than rates is the coffee in your mug.