PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower this morning, with a modest parallel move of 2–3bp down across the curve following soft UK data and subdued news flow.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates fell by 2–3bp at the AM reset, reflecting a mild downward move in gilts after soft UK industrial data.
PWLB rates edge down as UK data stays soft and news flow stays quiet
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.13% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.36% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.53% | -3bp |
| 10y | 6.01% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.61% | -2bp |
| 50y | 6.42% | -2bp |
Mild parallel shift lower across the curve; no significant steepening or flattening.
What Moved
- → Front-end and belly — 1y, 2y, 5y all down 2–3bp, matching the move in longer tenors.
- → Long-end — 25y and 50y both down 2bp, mirroring the rest of the curve.
Context
- → UK GDP (May): +0.10% MoM (forecast: +0.10%, prev: -0.10%). In line with expectations, showing only marginal growth.
- → UK Manufacturing Production: +0.10% MoM (forecast: -0.20%, prev: +0.50%). Slightly better than forecast but sharply down from last month.
- → UK Industrial Production: -0.50% MoM (forecast: -0.10%, prev: +0.20%). Weaker than expected, weighing on yields.
- → News flow: No material market-moving headlines for gilts or BoE policy this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK GDP MoM (May): Actual +0.10% (Forecast: +0.10%, Previous: -0.10%). In line with expectations; little impetus for yields.
- → UK Manufacturing Production MoM: Actual +0.10% (Forecast: -0.20%, Previous: +0.50%). Slightly firmer than forecast, but momentum slowing.
- → UK Industrial Production MoM: Actual -0.50% (Forecast: -0.10%, Previous: +0.20%). Weaker than expected, supporting a mild rally in gilts.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30: US Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: +0.20%
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 17 Jul 13:30: US Housing Starts — Forecast: 1.31M
- → Thu 17 Jul 13:30: US Building Permits Prel — Forecast: 1.4M
- → Thu 17 Jul 15:00: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — Forecast: 51
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset 2–3bp lower across all key maturities this morning, reflecting a mild rally in gilts after weaker-than-expected UK industrial production. If gilt yields continue to drift, the next reset could see further adjustment, but for now, the curve is moving in parallel and the tone remains subdued. No major macro news is driving the move; today's shift is data-led and moderate.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the office coffee.