PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed after the AM reset, with only minor 1bp moves at select maturities and no material shift in curve shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB AM rates are broadly unchanged, with only 1bp increases at 5y, 7y, 20y, and 30y; no significant driver evident.
PWLB rates: barely a ripple as inflation cools
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.19% | unch |
| 3y | 5.43% | unch |
| 5y | 5.61% | +1bp |
| 10y | 6.08% | unch |
| 25y | 6.69% | unch |
| 50y | 6.49% | unch |
Curve is essentially unchanged, with a flat profile and only isolated 1bp moves.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
Context
- → UK inflation (June) — CPI YoY fell to 2.6% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.8%), a slightly larger drop than expected.
- → News flow — No major UK macro or gilt-specific headlines; broader market focus remains on oil and global geopolitics.
- → Market conditions — Gilt and PWLB markets appear calm following the inflation release.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK CPI YoY (June): 2.6% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.8%) — Slightly softer than expected; likely supportive for gilts.
- → UK Core CPI YoY (June): 2.6% (forecast: 2.5%, previous: 2.6%) — In line with previous, marginally above forecast.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 23 Jul 13:15: ECB Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 2.40%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have barely moved, with only isolated 1bp upticks and no meaningful curve change. The market is digesting a softer-than-expected UK inflation print without any sign of volatility. Unless gilts move sharply before the next reset, expect similar conditions at the next PWLB fix.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the office coffee.