PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed at the AM reset, with all key maturities moving by just +1bp or remaining flat.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates are broadly unchanged at the 09:11 AM reset, with moves of +1bp or less across the curve.
PWLB rates barely budge as markets tread water
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.18% | unch |
| 3y | 5.38% | +1bp |
| 5y | 5.55% | +1bp |
| 10y | 6.01% | unch |
| 25y | 6.62% | +1bp |
| 50y | 6.40% | +1bp |
Parallel shift of +1bp or less across the curve; no material change in shape.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
Context
- → Mortgage Approvals (Jun): 58.2K vs forecast 57.1K (prev 56.6K) — slightly above expectations, but not enough to move rates.
- → GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM): 0.80% vs forecast 0.20% (prev 0.10%) — higher than forecast, but no discernible impact on gilts.
- → News flow: No material UK macro or gilt market news overnight; broader markets are focused on global earnings and geopolitical headlines, but nothing has shifted UK rates.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Mortgage Approvals: 58.2K (Forecast: 57.1K, Previous: 56.6K) — marginally above forecast, no impact on rates.
- → M4 Money Supply MoM: 0.80% (Forecast: 0.20%, Previous: 0.10%) — higher than expected, but not market-moving.
Remaining Today
- → 19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision: Forecast 3.75%
- → 19:30 USD Fed Press Conference
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 2026-07-30 12:00: GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
- → Thu 2026-07-30 13:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.70%
- → Thu 2026-07-30 13:30: USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv — Forecast: 2.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates are essentially unchanged at the AM reset, with only a +1bp move at most tenors. No immediate action required, but keep an eye on the Fed tonight and the BoE tomorrow for any shift in tone.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing moving is the clock.