PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher this morning, with notable 5–6bp increases across the curve and the 10-year now above 6% for the first time in this cycle.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates rose 5–6bp across all key maturities, with the 10y at 6.09% (+6bp); moves coincide with global bond market weakness and anticipation ahead of the Bank of England decision.
PWLB 10y breaches 6% as curve lifts sharply ahead of BoE
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.23% | +2bp |
| 3y | 5.44% | +3bp |
| 5y | 5.62% | +4bp |
| 10y | 6.09% | +6bp |
| 25y | 6.69% | +5bp |
| 50y | 6.48% | +6bp |
Parallel shift higher across the curve, with the 10y and long end both up 5–6bp.
What Moved
- → Broad-based rise — All key maturities rose, with the 10y, 20y, 30y, 40y, and 50y each up 6bp.
- → Long end under pressure — 25y and 50y both up 5–6bp, matching the move in the 10y.
- → Short end less volatile — 1y up 2bp, 3y up 3bp, lagging the longer tenors.
Context
- → Global bond sell-off — US 30-year yields hit a 19-year high after the Fed held rates, with global bond markets under pressure.
- → Bank of England decision looms — BoE rate announcement due at 12:00, with markets expecting no change (forecast: 3.75%).
- → No major UK data yet — Only car production released so far (-1.2% YoY, below forecast), unlikely to have moved rates.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → GBP Car Production YoY: -1.20% (Forecast: -0.50%, Previous: 3.20%) — Weaker than expected, but not a gilt market mover.
Remaining Today
- → 12:00: BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
- → BoE MPC Vote Unchanged — Forecast: 7
- → BoE Monetary Policy Report and Governor Bailey speech follow at 14:15.
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 2026-07-31 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 79K
- → Fri 2026-07-31 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.20%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have jumped 5–6bp across the curve at the AM reset, with the 10y now at 6.09% and the long end matching the move. This is a notable parallel shift, driven by global bond weakness and pre-BoE positioning. The next reset will reflect any further market reaction to the Bank of England's decision and US data. If you have near-term funding needs, monitor the midday fix closely—volatility is elevated.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every "one-off" inflation shock since 2008.