PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower across the curve this morning, with a uniform 5–6bp drop from front to long end.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates fell 5–6bp across all key maturities, tracking softer gilt yields amid subdued UK data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
PWLB curve drops 5–6bp as market shrugs off tepid data and global jitters
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.16% | -5bp |
| 3y | 5.36% | -6bp |
| 5y | 5.54% | -6bp |
| 10y | 6.02% | -5bp |
| 25y | 6.64% | -4bp |
| 50y | 6.42% | -5bp |
Parallel downward shift of 5–6bp across the curve, with a slightly smaller move at 25y.
What Moved
- → Broad-based drop — All key maturities fell 5–6bp, with the 25y point lagging slightly at -4bp.
- → No material curve twist — The move is parallel, with no significant steepening or flattening.
Context
- → Nationwide UK house price data — July YoY: 1.8% (forecast: 1.9%, prev: 2.2%), MoM: 0.1% (forecast: 0.1%, prev: 0.0%). Both readings are soft and below or in line with expectations.
- → Muted domestic macro — No other significant UK data released so far; market focus remains on global risk and energy headlines.
- → Geopolitical backdrop — Ongoing US-Iran conflict and North Sea energy headlines continue, but no direct impact on this morning’s reset.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — Actual: 1.8% (Forecast: 1.9%, Previous: 2.2%). Slightly below expectations, confirming a cooling trend.
- → Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — Actual: 0.1% (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.0%). In line with forecast, showing minimal monthly growth.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Mon 2026-08-03 15:00: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 53
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has reset 5–6bp lower across all key maturities this morning, with no significant curve twist. The move reflects a soft patch in UK housing data and a lack of fresh domestic macro drivers. If gilt yields continue to drift, the next reset will depend on any surprises from US data or further geopolitical developments. For now, the window is open for those watching for lower levels.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.