PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply lower this morning, with 5–9bp declines across the curve.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: broad-based 6–9bp drop in PWLB rates, led by the belly and long end, as gilts rally on quiet UK macro and global risk appetite.
PWLB rates tumble 6–9bp as gilts rally on risk-on mood
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.09% | -6bp |
| 3y | 5.27% | -9bp |
| 5y | 5.45% | -9bp |
| 10y | 5.93% | -9bp |
| 25y | 6.56% | -8bp |
| 50y | 6.35% | -9bp |
Parallel shift lower across the curve, with the largest moves in the 3–10y and ultra-long tenors.
What Moved
- → Broad-based rally — 6–9bp declines seen across all key maturities, with the 3y, 5y, 10y, and 50y tenors each down 8–9bp.
- → No material curve twist — Moves are consistent and parallel, no significant steepening or flattening.
Context
- → UK data quiet, but positive — S&P Global Services PMI Final (52.1 vs forecast 51.8, prev 48.8) and Composite PMI (52.2 vs 52.1, prev 49.3) both came in above expectations, but are not typically major drivers for gilts.
- → Global risk appetite up — News flow highlights a strong rally in global equities, with AI and tech stocks surging and oil prices falling on hopes of a US-Iran deal, supporting a risk-on environment.
- → No major UK macro news — No significant domestic headlines impacting gilts or BoE expectations this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → 09:00 New Car Sales YoY: 12% (Forecast: 10%, Previous: 11%) — Above expectations, but low impact for gilts.
- → 09:30 S&P Global Services PMI Final: 52.1 (Forecast: 51.8, Previous: 48.8) — Slightly stronger than forecast, but not a major market mover.
- → 09:30 S&P Global Composite PMI Final: 52.2 (Forecast: 52.1, Previous: 49.3) — Marginally above expectations, limited impact.
Remaining Today
- → 15:00 USD ISM Services PMI: Forecast 54.5 (Previous: 54) — May influence global rates if significantly above/below forecast.
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 07:00: EUR Balance of Trade — Forecast: data not available
- → Fri 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 80K
- → Fri 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.20%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The entire PWLB curve has reset 6–9bp lower this morning, with the 3–10y and 50y tenors down by 9bp. This is a notable move, reflecting a broad rally in gilts as global risk appetite improves and oil prices ease. No major UK data or news is driving the move, so focus remains on global sentiment and upcoming US data. If you are considering a transaction, be aware that the next reset will reflect any further moves in gilts or global risk sentiment.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.