PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset this morning with a notable 4–6bp rise across the curve, led by the 7–12 year sector and 10-year maturity.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates rose 4–6bp across all maturities, with the largest moves in the 7–12 year area; no single data release or news headline stands out as the clear driver.
PWLB curve climbs 4–6bp: broad upward shift, no single culprit
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.14% | +4bp |
| 3y | 5.33% | +5bp |
| 5y | 5.51% | +5bp |
| 10y | 6.00% | +6bp |
| 25y | 6.63% | +5bp |
| 50y | 6.42% | +4bp |
Parallel upward shift of 4–6bp across the curve, with the largest move at 10y.
WHAT MOVED
- → Broad curve lift — All maturities rose 4–6bp, with the 7–12y sector and 10y point leading.
- → No sharp divergence — Moves are consistent across short, medium, and long tenors.
CONTEXT
- → Lloyds House Price Index (Jul): MoM actual 0.0% (forecast 0.10%, prev 0.20%), YoY actual 0.10% (forecast 0.40%, prev 0.70%) — both below expectations, but not a material driver for gilts.
- → News flow: No major UK macro or gilt-specific headlines; global markets focused on US jobs data and Middle East tensions, but no direct UK impact evident at this reset.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Lloyds House Price Index (Jul): MoM 0.0% (forecast 0.10%, prev 0.20%), YoY 0.10% (forecast 0.40%, prev 0.70%) — softer than expected, but not moving gilts.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 13:30 USD Non Farm Payrolls: Forecast 80K (prev 57K) — global risk event, may influence gilts at PM reset.
- → 13:30 USD Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.20% (prev 4.20%) — watched for global rate sentiment.
- → 10:00 GBP BBA Mortgage Rate: Forecast 6.60% (prev 6.60%) — low impact.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Wed 12 Aug 13:30: USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.40%
- → Wed 12 Aug 13:30: USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.50%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have moved up 4–6bp across all maturities at this morning's reset, with the 10-year point now at 6.00%. This is a notable parallel shift, not driven by any single UK data point or headline. If you are timing new borrowing, be aware that the next reset will reflect any further market moves, especially after today's US payrolls.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — cutting through the noise since the yield curve had two humps and a prayer.