PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have reset sharply higher across the curve, with 9–10bp increases at every key maturity.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates up 9–10bp across all maturities, marking a significant parallel shift higher. No single domestic data point explains the move; global risk sentiment and higher US Treasury yields are likely contributors.
PWLB rates surge 9–10bp: sharp parallel shift as global bond yields jump
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.21% | +7bp |
| 3y | 5.43% | +10bp |
| 5y | 5.61% | +10bp |
| 10y | 6.09% | +10bp |
| 25y | 6.71% | +9bp |
| 50y | 6.51% | +10bp |
Parallel shift higher: all maturities up 7–10bp, with the largest moves in the 3–50y sector.
WHAT MOVED
- → Parallel curve shift — 3y to 50y maturities all rose by 9–10bp; 1y up 7bp.
- → No divergence across curve — No part of the curve was spared; the move is broad-based.
- → Magnitude — This is the largest single reset in recent weeks.
CONTEXT
- → GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Actual: 1.0% (Forecast: 1.50%, Previous: 1.70%). Slightly weaker than expected, not a driver for today's move.
- → Global bond market volatility — News flow highlights rising US Treasury yields and risk aversion ahead of key US inflation data; no direct UK-specific catalyst.
- → No major UK macro news — Domestic news and data are quiet; the move is imported from global markets.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Actual: 1.0% (Forecast: 1.50%, Previous: 1.70%). Slight miss, but not market-moving.
REMAINING TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Wed 12 Aug 13:30: USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.40%
- → Thu 13 Aug 07:00: GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
- → Thu 13 Aug 07:00: GBP GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 1.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has jumped 9–10bp across all key maturities at the AM reset, with 10y now at 6.09% and 25y at 6.71%. This is a significant move, driven by global bond market volatility rather than any UK-specific news. If you are planning to transact, be aware that these levels are materially higher than yesterday's and may shift again at the next reset if global sentiment changes. Monitor for further volatility around tomorrow's US inflation data.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the coffee.