PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates edged down by 1–3bp across the curve at the 12:04 reset; moves remain modest.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:04 PM reset are slightly lower across all key maturities, with little changed overall.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.14% (-1bp)
- → 3y: 5.33% (-3bp)
- → 5y: 5.51% (-3bp)
- → 10y: 6.00% (-2bp)
- → 25y: 6.62% (-3bp)
- → 50y: 6.42% (-3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Mild curve shift — All key tenors are 1–3bp lower versus the previous notice, with the 3–50y area seeing the largest moves.
- → Front end steadier — The 1y rate dipped just -1bp, while the rest of the curve saw -2bp to -3bp.
CONTEXT
- → UK gilt auction — The 2035 index-linked gilt auction cleared at 1.73%, up from 1.51% previously, but with low market impact noted.
- → Macro focus — Markets remain cautious ahead of key US CPI inflation data at 13:30, with news flow dominated by global inflation and Middle East tensions.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 13:30 — US CPI inflation (YoY forecast: 3.40%), a potential driver for global rates.
- → Tomorrow 07:00 — UK GDP (MoM forecast: 0.0%, YoY Prel: 1.10%), Manufacturing Production (MoM forecast: -0.20%), and Business Investment (QoQ Prel: -0.50%).
A gentle downward move at the PM reset; all eyes now on US inflation and tomorrow's UK GDP for the next steer.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all resets were this civilised.