PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, resulting in a modest upward adjustment in short PWLB rates and a small increase at the very long end, with most other maturities unchanged.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
- → 2y: 4.335% (+4bp) — front end rose, though less than longer tenors.
- → 10y: 5.018% (+7bp) — belly saw a pronounced increase.
- → 30y: 5.781% (+9bp) — long end led the move higher.
- → 50y: 5.357% (+9bp) — ultra-long yields matched the 30y increase.
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.15% | -1bp |
| 5y | 5.54% | -1bp |
| 10y | 6.03% | unch |
| 25y | 6.66% | unch |
| 50y | 6.47% | +1bp |
WHAT DROVE TODAY
- → No UK data releases today — the economic calendar was clear of domestic market-moving events.
- → US retail sales missed expectations — Actual: -0.60% vs Forecast: 0.10%, Previous: 0.20%. This was followed by a weaker-than-expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment (51 vs 54.5 forecast).
- → Market commentary points to global bond volatility — Several sources noted that bond markets are responding more to geopolitical risk and inflation, with US 30-year yields reaching multi-decade highs.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → PWLB rates ended the day broadly unchanged — most maturities saw no change, despite the notable rise in underlying gilt yields.
- → Marginal moves at the short and ultra-long ends — 1y and 5y rates fell slightly (-1bp), while 50y rose (+1bp), reflecting the timing of PWLB resets relative to gilt market volatility.
- → Borrowing costs remain near recent highs — with 10y and longer PWLB rates holding above 6%, funding conditions are little changed on the day.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Tuesday 07:00 — UK Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.90%)
- → Tuesday 07:00 — UK Employment Change (Forecast: 200K)
Gilt and PWLB markets closed the week with higher yields but little change in borrowing rates, as attention turns to next week's UK labour market data.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.