PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have moved sharply higher across all maturities at the AM reset, with increases of 5–8bp led by the long end.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates up 5–8bp across the curve, with the largest moves at 12y+; higher global yields and firm UK wage/inflation data are the backdrop.
PWLB curve jumps: 5–8bp rise as long-end leads, macro nerves bite
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.20% | +4bp |
| 3y | 5.44% | +6bp |
| 5y | 5.65% | +7bp |
| 10y | 6.15% | +7bp |
| 25y | 6.79% | +8bp |
| 50y | 6.59% | +8bp |
Parallel shift higher, with the largest increases at 12y and beyond.
WHAT MOVED
- → Long-end surge — 12y, 25y, 30y, 40y, and 50y all rose +8bp, outpacing the front end.
- → Front and belly — 1y up +4bp, 3y +6bp, 5y and 10y +7bp; no part of the curve spared.
- → Parallel shift — The move is broad-based, but the long end leads, steepening the curve.
CONTEXT
- → UK wage growth — Average earnings incl. bonus at 4.10% (in line with forecast, but down from 4.40%); ex-bonus at 3.50% (above forecast, up from 3.40%).
- → Unemployment steady — Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.90% (vs forecast 4.80%).
- → Global backdrop — News flow highlights rising long-dated yields, higher oil prices, and ongoing macro volatility.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Unemployment Rate — 4.90% actual (forecast 4.80%, prev 4.90%): unchanged, slightly above forecast.
- → Average Earnings incl. Bonus — 4.10% actual (forecast 4.10%, prev 4.40%): in line, but easing from last month.
- → Employment Change — 83K actual (forecast 200K, prev 147K): well below expectations, suggesting softer jobs growth.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 13:30 USD Housing Starts — Forecast: 1.35M (prev 1.427M)
- → 13:30 USD Building Permits Prel — Forecast: 1.37M (prev 1.374M)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Wed 19 Aug 07:00: GBP Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.90%
- → Wed 19 Aug 19:00: USD FOMC Minutes
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have jumped 5–8bp at the AM reset, with the long end (25y, 50y) now at 6.79% and 6.59% respectively. The entire curve has shifted higher, with the largest moves in longer maturities. This reflects a combination of firm wage data, steady unemployment, and ongoing global yield pressure. If you are watching for the next reset, be aware that the current snapshot is materially higher than yesterday.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.