PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower by 2–3bp across the curve at the 09:04 AM fix, following a modest parallel move after UK inflation data came in above the Bank of England target.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates fell by 2–3bp at the AM reset, with the move broadly parallel across maturities after UK CPI surprised to the upside.
PWLB nudges down despite inflation jump — curve shifts lower in unison
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.16% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.40% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.60% | -3bp |
| 10y | 6.10% | -3bp |
| 25y | 6.74% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.54% | -3bp |
Parallel shift lower across the curve, with all key tenors down 2–3bp.
What moved
- → Broad-based move — All key maturities from 1y to 50y dropped by 2–3bp, with no material divergence along the curve.
Context
- → UK CPI (July) — Headline inflation rose to 2.90% y/y (forecast: 2.90%, previous: 2.60%), moving further above the BoE target and ending the recent run of disinflation.
- → Core CPI — Unchanged at 2.60% y/y (forecast: 2.50%), slightly above expectations.
- → News flow — Coverage focused on the inflation rebound and higher energy bills; no other major macro drivers evident this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Inflation Rate YoY — Actual: 2.90% (Forecast: 2.90%, Previous: 2.60%). Headline CPI rose more than last month and is now above the BoE target, a potential headwind for gilts.
- → Core Inflation Rate YoY — Actual: 2.60% (Forecast: 2.50%, Previous: 2.60%). Core inflation held steady, slightly above forecast.
Remaining Today
- → 19:00 USD FOMC Minutes — Market will watch for any signal on US rate outlook; potential for knock-on to gilts if tone surprises.
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 21 Aug 07:00: GBP Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: -0.50%
- → Fri 21 Aug 09:30: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Forecast: 51.8
- → Fri 21 Aug 09:30: GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 51.5
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates reset 2–3bp lower across all key maturities at the AM fix, despite UK CPI and core inflation both coming in above target. The move is parallel, so relative pricing between short and long tenors remains stable. Watch for any reaction to the FOMC minutes this evening and Friday's UK retail sales and PMI data, which could set the tone for the next reset.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.