PWLB NEXT-FIX PREDICTIONS · maturity loans, standard rate | Tenor | Current fix | | Implied next | Move | Borrower signal |
|---|
| 1y | 5.19 | → | 5.178 | -1.2bp | ▬ FLAT · no pressure | | 2y | 5.32 | → | 5.308 | -1.2bp | ▬ FLAT · no pressure | | 5y | 5.62 | → | 5.605 | -1.5bp | ▬ FLAT · no pressure | | 10y | 6.11 | → | 6.100 | -1.0bp | ▬ FLAT · no pressure | | 20y | 6.65 | → | 6.638 | -1.2bp | ▬ FLAT · no pressure | | 50y | 6.53 | → | 6.520 | -1.0bp | ▬ FLAT · no pressure |
Market closed — estimates and signals anchored to the close; they re-anchor at the next open. BANK RATE — OIS-IMPLIED PATH · same engine as the SONIA curve page NOW 3.75% | Sep 26 3.75% · hold | Nov 26 4.00% ▲ +25 | Dec 26 4.00% · hold | Feb 27 4.00% · hold | Mar 27 4.25% ▲ +25 | Apr 27 4.25% · hold |
Next move priced: +25bp at the Nov 2026 MPC PWLB CURVE · AS LAST FIXED, YESTERDAY PM · standard maturity, new loans · dot = rate as last fixed (yesterday PM) · chip = our estimate of the move at the next fixing | 2y | | 5.32% | -1.2bp | | | 5y | | 5.62% | -1.5bp | | | 10y | | 6.11% | -1.0bp | | | 20y | | 6.65% | -1.2bp | | | 25y | | 6.73% | | | 50y | | 6.53% | -1.0bp | |
scale: 5.22% → 6.83% GILT YIELD MOVES · AT YESTERDAY’S CLOSE · 2026-08-20 17:16 vs 2026-08-19 close · red = up (borrowing costlier), green = down · longer bar = bigger move | ~2y | | | | +1.4bp | 4.363% | | | ~5y | | | | +1.9bp | 4.594% | | | ~10y | | | | +2.0bp | 5.065% | | | ~20y | | | | +1.8bp | 5.726% | | | ~30y | | | | +1.7bp | 5.802% | | | ~50y | | | | +2.0bp | 5.358% | |
Wednesday’s intervention bought exactly one day. US government bond yields have given back the whole of the buyback relief, the Treasury Secretary is talking about intervening again, and the German 10-year is back at a 15-year high. Ten-year PWLB borrowing ends where it began at 6.11% — and the 3bp advantage that stood at 16:20 has mostly gone in the last hour of trading. Notice 322/26 · PM fix 2026-08-20 12:22:00 · standard new-loan rates, % (change vs prior fix) | 2y | 5y | 10y | 20y | 25y | 50y |
|---|
| Maturity | 5.32 | 5.62 | 6.11 | 6.65 | 6.73 | 6.53 | | Eip | 5.22 | 5.40 | 5.64 | 6.13 | 6.33 | 6.73 | | Annuity | 5.23 | 5.41 | 5.68 | 6.27 | 6.49 | 6.72 |
THE DAY - 08:06 — 10-year gilt 1.3bp below yesterday, the day’s low
- 09:10 — notice 321/26, 10-year 6.10%, down 1bp; 50-year 6.52%, down 3bp
- 11:00 — CBI industrial trends orders −25, forecast −40, previously −45
- 12:22 — notice 322/26, 10-year 6.11%, up 1bp across every line
- 13:38 — 10-year gilt 4.2bp above yesterday, the day’s high
- 16:16 — 10-year gilt 0.1bp above yesterday
- close — 10-year gilt 5.065%, 2.0bp above yesterday
One note of record. No edition was published between 10:17 and 16:20, so notice 322/26 and the CBI figure were reported hours after they reached us. That was disclosed in the 16:20 edition and is repeated here because a day’s record should carry it. Nothing in the archive has been altered. THE RELIEF LASTED ONE DAY Wednesday afternoon’s fall in borrowing costs — the best move of the week, and the first thing in a fortnight to push against the global sell-off — came from the US Treasury announcing bond buybacks. By this evening the market it started in had given all of it back. Reaching us through the afternoon and evening: US yields surging again a day after the buyback plan, the sell-off in US government bonds described as restarting, the German 10-year holding at a 15-year high, and the US Treasury Secretary suggesting the Treasury could intervene again — ‘we have a big tool kit’. Gold has risen to a two-month high. What a treasurer should take from that. An intervention that has to be repeated within a day is information about the strength of the thing it is pushing against. The forces that took ten-year borrowing from 6.07% on Monday to 6.15% on Tuesday have not been dealt with; they were interrupted. Wednesday’s 3bp of relief at long maturities was worth taking, and 321/26 this morning was the round that carried it. TWO ROUNDS OF OPPOSITE CHARACTER, AND THE MORNING WON Standard maturity rates as they stand tonight, certainty rate — 20bp lower, for authorities that have submitted a borrowing forecast — alongside: - 2-year 5.32% standard — 5.12% certainty
- 5-year 5.62% standard — 5.42% certainty
- 10-year 6.11% standard — 5.91% certainty
- 20-year 6.65% standard — 6.45% certainty
- 25-year 6.73% standard — 6.53% certainty
- 50-year 6.53% standard — 6.33% certainty
321/26 split the sheet and 322/26 moved it as a block. The morning round took 3bp off borrowing over twenty years and more while adding one at two years — the first tilted round of the week, and the one on which Wednesday’s long-dated relief finally reached the sheet. The lunchtime round put a basis point back on every line without distinction. The result is that the morning round was the better of the two at every maturity, by that basis point, and by 3bp at the long maturities against yesterday afternoon. Ten-year borrowing ends the day exactly where it started it. Both rounds were struck before the day’s high at 13:38 and both look well placed against it. A borrower waiting through the early afternoon for something better did not get it. THE STRONGEST UK NUMBER IN WEEKS, AND THE MARKET IGNORED IT CBI industrial trends orders came in at −25 against −40 expected and −45 the month before. That is a fifteen-point beat on forecast and a twenty-point improvement on the month — large for this survey, which measures the balance of manufacturers reporting order books above or below normal. A stronger economy ordinarily argues for higher rates. We will not tell you it moved the market, because the market went the other way — yields eased in the quarter-hour after it, from 1.4bp above yesterday at 11:00 to 0.5bp at 11:15. We report the figure and the price separately rather than joining them into a story neither supports. It matters for a different reason. It is the second UK release this week to argue one way while borrowing costs went the other, and it is the clearest evidence yet that UK rates are not currently being set by UK data. THE LAST HOUR CHANGED TOMORROW’S ARITHMETIC At 16:16 the 10-year gilt was 0.1bp above yesterday’s close and tomorrow morning’s round looked about 3bp below the rate in force. Yields then rose through the final hour — 2.2bp above at 17:00, 2.0bp at the last prints to reach us. Against yesterday’s close at the close: 2-year 4.363% (1.4bp above), 5-year 4.594% (1.9bp), 10-year 5.065% (2.0bp), 20-year 5.726% (1.8bp), 30-year 5.802% (1.7bp), 50-year 5.358% (2.0bp). On that market, tomorrow morning’s round would come in below 322/26 but only just: about 6.100% on the 10-year, 1.0bp lower, 5.605% on the 5-year (1.5bp), 6.638% on the 20-year (1.2bp) and 6.520% on the 50-year (1.0bp). A basis point across the curve, where three stood an hour earlier. The 1-year SONIA swap — the clearest read on what markets expect the Bank of England to do over the coming year — ends at 4.151%, 1.3bp above yesterday, having spent the morning below it. Bank Rate is 3.75% and the path still shows a 25bp rise in November to 4.00%. TOMORROW IS THE WEEK’S REMAINING DOMESTIC RISK - 07:00 — retail sales, forecast −0.5% against a 1% rise the month before
- 09:30 — flash purchasing managers’ surveys, forecast 51.5 manufacturing and 51.8 services, against 51.9 and 52.1, both above the 50 line separating growth from contraction
Both land before the morning round and both can reach it. That is the difference between tonight and last night: a one-basis-point advantage measured at the close is not one a borrower can rely on at 09:00, and on a Friday with two releases in front of the round it is worth very little. The larger question tomorrow is whether gilts keep holding while US borrowing costs deteriorate. They did today — the read-across that drove every move we reported this week simply did not operate, and gilts finished 2bp higher on a day US yields gave back a great deal more. Whether that is resilience or a lag is the thing to watch at tomorrow’s open. |