PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed at the AM reset, with moves of just ±1bp across the curve and no material shift in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates are virtually unchanged this morning, with only minor ±1bp moves and no significant curve movement.
PWLB rates barely budge as market digests quiet data morning
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.18% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.42% | unch |
| 5y | 5.62% | unch |
| 10y | 6.11% | unch |
| 25y | 6.74% | +1bp |
| 50y | 6.54% | +1bp |
Curve is unchanged, with only minor ±1bp moves and no material steepening or flattening.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
CONTEXT
- → UK retail sales (Jul) — MoM -0.50% (forecast: -0.50%, prev: +0.70%). In line with expectations, but marks a reversal from last month’s growth.
- → UK flash PMIs (Aug) — Services 52.8 (forecast: 51.8, prev: 52.1); Manufacturing 51.5 (forecast: 51.5, prev: 51.9). Slightly better than expected for services, manufacturing steady.
- → News flow — No major UK macro or gilt market news impacting rates this morning.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) — Actual: -14 (forecast: -18, prev: -17). Slightly better than expected, but not enough to move rates.
- → Retail Sales MoM (Jul) — Actual: -0.50% (forecast: -0.50%, prev: +0.70%). Matches forecast, no surprise for gilts.
- → S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) — Actual: 52.8 (forecast: 51.8, prev: 52.1). Slightly above expectations, but not a material mover.
- → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) — Actual: 51.5 (forecast: 51.5, prev: 51.9). In line with expectations.
REMAINING TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 25 Aug 09:00: EUR Ifo Business Climate — Forecast: 85.9
- → Wed 26 Aug 13:30: USD Personal Spending MoM — Forecast: 0.20%
- → Wed 26 Aug 13:30: USD Core PCE Price Index MoM — Forecast: 0.20%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have barely moved at the AM fix, with only ±1bp changes and no meaningful curve shift. This is a classic "wait and see" reset—no urgency for action, but keep an eye on the next data prints for any signs of movement.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here, still watching, still not impressed by a ±1bp morning.