PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher this morning, with 5–9bp increases across all maturities as gilt yields surge to multi-year highs.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates up 6–9bp across the curve, tracking a pronounced move higher in gilts as UK 10-year yields hit their highest since 2008 on renewed inflation and energy concerns.
PWLB rates surge as gilt yields spike to 18-year highs
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.27% | +6bp |
| 3y | 5.52% | +8bp |
| 5y | 5.71% | +8bp |
| 10y | 6.20% | +8bp |
| 25y | 6.81% | +8bp |
| 50y | 6.60% | +8bp |
Parallel shift higher: all maturities up 6–9bp, with the largest moves at the long end.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end and long-end both lifted — 1y up 6bp, 30–50y up 8–9bp, with no part of the curve spared.
- → 10-year sector in focus — UK 10y gilt yield jumped 7bp to 5.223%, the highest since June 2008.
- → No curve flattening or steepening — the move is a clear parallel shift, not a change in curve shape.
CONTEXT
- → UK 10y gilt yield at 5.223% — up 7bp, highest since 2008, as global bond sell-off accelerates on inflation and energy fears.
- → Shop price inflation jumps — BRC Shop Price Inflation actual 1.50% (forecast 1.0%, previous 0.90%), highest in two years, driven by energy costs.
- → Global bond rout — Rising oil prices and renewed Middle East tensions have triggered a sharp repricing across sovereign debt.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → BRC Shop Price Inflation — Actual: 1.50% (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.90%). Above expectations; confirms inflationary pressures.
- → Nationwide House Prices MoM — Actual: 0.20% (Forecast: 0.10%, Previous: -0.10%). Slightly above forecast; property market remains subdued.
- → Mortgage Approvals — Actual: 56K (Forecast: 59.4K, Previous: 58.2K). Below forecast; demand remains soft.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 55.2 (Previous: 55.6)
- → 15:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 7.3M (Previous: 7.359M)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Thu 2026-09-03 15:00: USD ISM Services PMI — Forecast: 54.3
- → Fri 2026-09-04 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 58K
- → Fri 2026-09-04 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have jumped 6–9bp across the curve at the AM reset, with the 10y now at 6.20% and the 25y at 6.81%. The single most important clause: this is a parallel move, not a curve twist — every maturity is sharply higher. The move is driven by a global bond sell-off as UK and US yields hit multi-year highs, fuelled by inflation and energy price concerns. If you are considering new borrowing, be aware that the next reset will reflect any further gilt volatility.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every "new normal" turned out to be just another Tuesday.