PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed after the AM reset, with moves of just 0–2bp across the curve and no material shift in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM rates are virtually unchanged, with only minor 1–2bp moves at the front and belly.
PWLB Curve Hits the Snooze Button: No Surprises in AM Reset
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.25% | +2bp |
| 3y | 5.49% | +1bp |
| 5y | 5.68% | +2bp |
| 10y | 6.13% | unch |
| 25y | 6.73% | unch |
| 50y | 6.52% | unch |
Curve shows a near-parallel move, with only minor upward nudges at the short and medium end.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
Context
- → Lloyds House Price Index (Aug): -0.40% YoY (Forecast: +0.10%, Prev: +0.10%) — below expectations, confirming a modest annual decline in UK house prices.
- → Chancellor Healey's speech: No immediate market impact; focus remains on growth and fiscal discipline.
- → News flow: Light for gilts; no major macro or BoE headlines moving rates this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Lloyds House Price Index YoY: -0.40% (Forecast: +0.10%, Prev: +0.10%) — weaker than expected, but no discernible impact on gilts.
- → Lloyds House Price Index MoM: -0.20% (Forecast: +0.20%, Prev: -0.10%) — also below forecast; market remains unmoved.
- → Chancellor John Healey Speech: No immediate effect on rates.
Remaining Today
- → 10:00: BBA Mortgage Rate — Forecast: 6.60%
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 2026-09-10 13:15: ECB Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 2.65%
- → Fri 2026-09-11 07:00: UK GDP MoM — Forecast: 0.0%
- → Fri 2026-09-11 13:30: US Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.40%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates are essentially unchanged after the AM reset, with only minor 1–2bp upward moves at the short and medium end. No significant data or news is driving the market this morning. Unless gilts move materially before the PM fix, expect the next reset to remain in a similar range. Keep an eye on Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's UK GDP for potential catalysts later in the week.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the market is flat and the coffee is strong.