PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher this morning, with a broad 3–5bp rise across the curve and the 10-year now above 6.15%.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: 3–5bp move up across all maturities, led by the 2–10y sector; no single news driver, but oil and inflation concerns remain in focus.
PWLB rates punch higher as oil and inflation risks linger
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.28% | +4bp |
| 3y | 5.54% | +5bp |
| 5y | 5.72% | +4bp |
| 10y | 6.18% | +4bp |
| 25y | 6.77% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.56% | +3bp |
Parallel upward shift of 3–5bp across the curve; 10y now at 6.18%.
What Moved
- → Broad parallel move — 3–5bp rise across all key maturities, with the 3–10y sector leading.
- → No major curve reshaping — Long-end and short-end both moved up, maintaining curve slope.
Context
- → Oil prices near $100 — Ongoing attacks on Saudi energy facilities and supply risks are keeping inflation concerns front and centre.
- → UK retail sales soft — BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY actual 0.5% (forecast 1.2%, previous 1.0%), below expectations, but not enough to offset global inflation worries.
- → No major UK macro news — News flow otherwise light for gilts; focus remains on global inflation and energy.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Actual: 0.50% (Forecast: 1.20%, Previous: 1.0%). Below expectations, but overshadowed by global inflation risks.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 2026-09-10 13:15: ECB Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 2.65%
- → Fri 2026-09-11 07:00: UK GDP MoM — Forecast: 0.0%
- → Fri 2026-09-11 07:00: UK GDP YoY — Forecast: 1.20%
- → Fri 2026-09-11 13:30: US Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.40%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The AM PWLB reset delivered a parallel 3–5bp rise across the curve, with the 10y now at 6.18% and the 25y at 6.77%. This is a notable move, reflecting persistent inflation and energy market pressures. If you are watching for the next reset, be aware that the market is currently pricing in higher rates, and the window for locking prior levels has closed for now. Monitor for further volatility as global inflation data and central bank decisions approach.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.