PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB fixed rates rose 2–4bp across the curve at the PM reset, with the 3–10 year tenors leading the move; energy-driven inflation concerns and surging oil prices are the dominant backdrop.
PWLB rates at the 12:34 PM reset climbed 2–4bp across key maturities, with the 3–10 year area seeing the largest increases.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.32% (+3bp)
- → 3y: 5.59% (+4bp)
- → 5y: 5.77% (+4bp)
- → 10y: 6.20% (+3bp)
- → 25y: 6.78% (+2bp)
- → 50y: 6.57% (+2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end and belly led the move — 1y, 3y, and 5y tenors rose 3–4bp, with the 3y and 5y at the top of the range.
- → Long end firmer — 25y and 50y rates up 2bp, showing a parallel move but less pronounced than the short and intermediate maturities.
CONTEXT
- → Oil prices surge above $100 — Multiple sources report Brent crude breaking $100 as Middle East conflict escalates, intensifying inflation concerns.
- → Bond market anxiety — News flow highlights rising yields and renewed focus on inflation risk, with UK energy costs and global supply shocks in the spotlight.
- → No UK data released today — Calendar is empty for UK releases so far; market moves are news-driven.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 00:01 — GBP RICS House Price Balance (forecast: -31%)
- → Tomorrow 13:15 — ECB Interest Rate Decision (forecast: 2.65%) and Deposit Facility Rate (forecast: 2.50%)
A firmer reset, with energy and inflation themes dominating; keep an eye on tomorrow’s ECB and UK housing data for the next catalyst.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re waiting for a quiet week, you may be waiting a while.