PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates nudged lower by up to 4bp at the front end and belly; longer-dated maturities were flat or down just 1bp.
The 12:30 PWLB reset saw a modest downward shift across most of the curve, with little movement at the long end.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.42% (-4bp)
- → 3y: 5.73% (-4bp)
- → 5y: 5.91% (-4bp)
- → 10y: 6.32% (-2bp)
- → 25y: 6.86% (-1bp)
- → 50y: 6.65% (-1bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end and belly — 1y, 2y, 3y, and 5y all down by 4bp.
- → 10y sector — Down 2bp; 7y and 12y also -2bp.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y both -1bp; 30y and 40y unchanged.
CONTEXT
- → UK GDP — July GDP surprised to the upside at +0.4% m/m (vs 0.0% forecast), with services leading the gain.
- → Manufacturing/Industrial Output — Both beat expectations (manufacturing +0.9% m/m, industrial +0.2% m/m).
- → Market backdrop — News flow dominated by energy price volatility and global bond selloff themes, but UK data has been resilient.
LOOK AHEAD
- → 13:30 (today): US CPI — Headline YoY forecast 3.4%; Core YoY 2.4%. Closely watched for global bond impact.
- → Tuesday 07:00: UK Labour Market — Unemployment rate forecast 4.9%; earnings and employment change also due.
A gentle downward adjustment at the PM fix, with the curve still elevated and all eyes on US inflation this afternoon.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather were as steady as the long end.