PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest downward move across the curve at the 12:17 reset, with 1–3bp declines led by the long end.
PWLB fixed rates reset lower at the PM fix, with little changed in the overall curve shape but a clear downward tilt across all key maturities.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.49% (-2bp)
- → 3y: 5.80% (-2bp)
- → 5y: 5.97% (-2bp)
- → 10y: 6.35% (-2bp)
- → 25y: 6.86% (-3bp)
- → 50y: 6.65% (-3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Curve lower by 2–3bp — All key maturities reset down, with the largest moves at the long end (25y, 50y: -3bp).
- → Front end and belly — 1y, 3y, 5y, and 10y all marked -2bp, indicating a parallel shift rather than a twist.
CONTEXT
- → No UK data released today — The calendar is empty for UK economic releases so far.
- → Market focus on oil and AI — News flow dominated by the Saudi pipeline shutdown (Brent at $108), ongoing Middle East tensions, and global equity weakness after calls for an AI development slowdown.
- → Central bank anticipation — Market commentary highlights expectations for both Fed and Bank of England rate decisions later this week, with rate hike risk in focus.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 07:00 — UK Unemployment Rate (HIGH, forecast: 5.0%), Employment Change (MEDIUM, forecast: 70K), and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (MEDIUM, forecast: 3.90%).
Curve softens modestly at the PM fix, with markets watching oil and central bank risk ahead of a busy midweek data slate.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re reading this, you’re already ahead of the curve.