PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — Broad-based declines of 3–9bp across the PWLB curve at the PM fix, with the largest moves in the 2–3y area; no single clear driver in today's inputs.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:27 PM reset fell 3–9bp across the curve, with the most pronounced drops in short and medium maturities.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.38% (-8bp)
- → 3y: 5.65% (-9bp)
- → 5y: 5.81% (-8bp)
- → 10y: 6.17% (-6bp)
- → 25y: 6.65% (-4bp)
- → 50y: 6.34% (-3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end and belly led the move — 1y, 2y, and 3y rates down 8–9bp, with 5y following closely (-8bp).
- → Long end steadier — 25y and 50y both down 3–4bp, moderating the curve flattening.
- → 10y in line with broader move — 10y rate down 6bp, consistent with the overall downward shift.
CONTEXT
- → UK data — CBI Industrial Trends Orders beat expectations at -9 (vs forecast -34), but no direct market reaction is evident.
- → Gilt auction — 2032 auction cleared at 4.84% (up from 4.61% previously), but this occurred before the PM reset and does not explain the afternoon rate drop.
- → News flow — Headlines dominated by UK government borrowing overshoot and energy market volatility, but no single clear driver for the gilt rally is apparent.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — S&P Global Services PMI Flash (forecast: 52), Manufacturing PMI Flash (forecast: 51.4), and Composite PMI Flash (forecast: 52.3) all due; these will be closely watched for fresh direction.
A meaningful downward shift in PWLB rates this afternoon, but with no obvious single catalyst; keep an eye on tomorrow's PMI data for the next steer.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the Budget moved as fast as the PWLB curve.