PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed this morning, with all maturities moving by just 1–3bp and no material shift in curve shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB AM reset: rates up 1–3bp across the curve, no significant movement or new drivers.
PWLB edges up, but the curve barely stirs its morning coffee
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.47% | +1bp |
| 3y | 5.80% | +1bp |
| 5y | 5.97% | unch |
| 10y | 6.34% | +1bp |
| 25y | 6.81% | +1bp |
| 50y | 6.53% | +3bp |
A near-parallel shift: all maturities up 1–3bp, with the 50y long-end slightly more active.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
CONTEXT
- → UK GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual: -13 (Forecast: -16, Previous: -14). Slightly stronger than expected, but not a major market mover.
- → News flow — No material UK macro or gilt-specific headlines this morning.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual: -13 (Forecast: -16, Previous: -14). Slightly better than forecast; limited impact on gilts.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: -0.40%. Could influence global risk sentiment, but not typically a direct driver for gilts.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 29 Sep 15:00: USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 7.24M
- → Wed 30 Sep 07:45: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.80%
- → Wed 30 Sep 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.80%
- → Wed 30 Sep 13:30: USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Forecast: 1.50%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have nudged up by 1–3bp across the curve, with no single maturity standing out. The morning reset reflects a very modest upward drift, not a material repricing. No significant data or news is driving the move, so the window for any intra-day opportunity is likely to remain narrow until the next reset.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after all these resets, and still not making the tea.