PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher this morning, with a 3bp parallel move up across the curve and a minor dip at the 1-year.
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB AM rates rose 2–3bp across the curve, led by the 10–50 year tenors; front-end unchanged to slightly lower. No single news driver, but global bond yields remain under pressure from persistent inflation and higher oil prices.
PWLB curve edges up: 3bp lift across the board, long end holds above 6.8%
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.47% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.81% | unch |
| 5y | 6.00% | +2bp |
| 10y | 6.38% | +3bp |
| 25y | 6.85% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.55% | +3bp |
Parallel 2–3bp upward shift from 5y out; 1y slightly softer.
WHAT MOVED
- → Belly and long end up 2–3bp — 5y, 10y, 25y, and 50y all reset higher.
- → 1y rate dipped 1bp — short end slightly softer, diverging from the rest of the curve.
CONTEXT
- → No UK data released yet — calendar is empty so far this morning.
- → Global bond yields remain under pressure — news flow highlights persistent inflation, higher oil prices, and ongoing Middle East tensions as background drivers.
- → UK political headlines focus on housing and fiscal policy — no direct market impact evident in this reset.
CALENDAR EVENTS
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
- → 11:00: BoE Ramsden Speech (LOW)
- → 13:00: Chancellor John Healey Speech (MEDIUM)
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 29 Sep 15:00: USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 7.23M
- → Wed 30 Sep 07:45: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.80%
- → Wed 30 Sep 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.80%
- → Wed 30 Sep 13:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.10%
- → Wed 30 Sep 13:30: USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Forecast: 1.60%
- → Wed 30 Sep 13:30: USD Core PCE Price Index MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has reset 2–3bp higher across all main maturities, with the 1y bucking the trend and dipping 1bp. If you were waiting for a pullback, this morning's fix offers no relief—long-dated rates remain firmly above 6.8%. With no UK data out yet and only political speeches on the docket, the move reflects ongoing global rate pressure rather than any domestic catalyst. Watch for further volatility around US and European inflation data midweek.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council IT department.