PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed at the AM reset, with moves of just 1–2bp lower across the curve and no material shifts in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM PWLB rates edge down by 1–2bp across most maturities; no significant market driver evident.
PWLB curve drifts quietly lower as markets pause for breath
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.48% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.82% | -1bp |
| 5y | 6.00% | -1bp |
| 10y | 6.37% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.85% | -1bp |
| 50y | 6.54% | unch |
Mild parallel shift lower; no material steepening or flattening.
WHAT MOVED
Movements are negligible across the curve.
CONTEXT
- → Mortgage approvals — 54.9K (Forecast: 56.1K, Previous: 55.9K). Slightly below expectations, but not a major surprise for gilts.
- → BRC Shop Price Inflation — 1.40% (Forecast: 1.50%, Previous: 1.50%). Marginally softer than forecast.
- → News flow — No material UK macro or gilt-specific headlines this morning; conditions appear quiet.
CALENDAR EVENTS
Today's Releases
- → Mortgage Approvals — 54.9K (Forecast: 56.1K, Previous: 55.9K). Slightly weaker than expected; limited impact on gilts.
- → BRC Shop Price Inflation — 1.40% (Forecast: 1.50%, Previous: 1.50%). Marginally softer than forecast.
Remaining Today
- → 15:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 7.23M
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 30 Sep 07:45: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.80%
- → Wed 30 Sep 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.80%
- → Wed 30 Sep 13:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.20%
- → Wed 30 Sep 13:30: USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Forecast: 1.50%
- → Wed 30 Sep 13:30: USD Core PCE Price Index MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have nudged 1–2bp lower across the curve at the AM reset, with no material change in curve shape. The market remains quiet, with no significant macro data or news flow driving gilts this morning. Next reset will depend on any developments from US data later today, but for now, conditions are stable.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing moving faster than rates is the office kettle.