PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have eased modestly across the curve at the AM reset, with most maturities down 2–3bp.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates reset lower by 2–3bp across most maturities at the 09:05 AM fix, reflecting a modest move in underlying gilts.
PWLB rates drift lower as curve softens on revised UK growth
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.45% | -2bp |
| 3y | 5.78% | -3bp |
| 5y | 5.95% | -3bp |
| 10y | 6.33% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.82% | -2bp |
| 50y | 6.53% | unch |
Mild parallel shift lower across the curve, with the long end steady.
What Moved
- → Front and belly — 1y to 15y maturities saw the largest moves, down 2–3bp.
- → Long end — 50y rate unchanged; 40y and 30y down just 1bp.
Context
- → UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Final): 0.50% (Forecast: 0.40%, Previous: 0.60%) — modestly above expectations, confirming slight upward revision to Q2 growth.
- → UK Business Investment YoY (Final): 5.20% (Forecast: 0.80%, Previous: 1.80%) — well above forecast, indicating stronger investment momentum.
- → News flow — Focus on upward GDP revision and household income; no major shocks or surprises for gilts.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Final): 0.50% (Forecast: 0.40%, Previous: 0.60%) — slightly above expectations, supportive for gilts.
- → UK Business Investment YoY (Final): 5.20% (Forecast: 0.80%, Previous: 1.80%) — strong outturn, but no immediate impact on rates.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 2026-10-01 15:00: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 55
- → Fri 2026-10-02 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 90K
- → Fri 2026-10-02 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have edged down 2–3bp across most maturities at the morning reset, with the long end steady. This modest move reflects a slightly softer gilt market following upward revisions to UK growth and investment data. If you are monitoring for the next reset, note that the curve is stable and no major data is due before the PM fix.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.