PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply lower this morning, with double-digit declines across the curve as the global bond rout pauses and gilt yields retreat.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — AM reset: significant drop in PWLB rates (down 6–12bp), tracking a sharp pullback in gilt yields after this week's global bond sell-off.
PWLB rates tumble as gilt yields retreat from multi-year highs
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.36% | -10bp |
| 3y | 5.69% | -12bp |
| 5y | 5.90% | -11bp |
| 10y | 6.33% | -8bp |
| 25y | 6.85% | -6bp |
| 50y | 6.56% | -6bp |
Parallel downward shift across the curve, with the largest moves in the short and medium tenors.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end and belly — 1y to 5y rates fell 10–12bp, leading the move lower.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y tenors dropped by 6bp, less than the short end.
- → Curve shape — Bear steepening unwinds as short and intermediate rates fall fastest.
CONTEXT
- → Global bond sell-off pauses — News flow highlights a sharp retreat in gilt and Treasury yields after hitting multi-year highs, with risk appetite stabilising.
- → No major UK data released yet — Only low-impact DMP survey prints so far; no direct macro driver from this morning's calendar.
- → Market focus — Attention remains on global bond volatility, with French and US yields in the headlines and UK rates following suit.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
No data released so far today.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 10:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.60% (Prev: 3.20%)
- → 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 90K (Prev: 162K)
- → 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.10% (Prev: 4.10%)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Fri 2026-10-02 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 90K
- → Fri 2026-10-02 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have dropped sharply at the AM reset, with 1y–5y down 10–12bp and the long end 6bp lower. This is a direct response to the retreat in gilt yields after a turbulent week for global bonds. If volatility persists, expect further swings at the next reset. For now, the window is open for those needing to lock in at materially lower rates than yesterday.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every "one-off" volatility event since the days of the double tap reset.