PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates saw minimal movement at the 12:31 reset, with only minor changes at the short and ultra-long ends.
PWLB rates at the PM fix are little changed, with a +1bp move in the 1–5y tenors and a -1bp adjustment at 50y; the rest of the curve is flat.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.45% — (+1bp)
- → 3y: 5.76% — (+1bp)
- → 5y: 5.95% — (+1bp)
- → 10y: 6.35% — (unch)
- → 25y: 6.85% — (unch)
- → 50y: 6.55% — (-1bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end — 1y, 2y, 3y, and 5y up by +1bp.
- → Long end — 50y down by -1bp; 25y and 10y unchanged.
- → Curve — Flat in the belly; minimal overall movement.
CONTEXT
- → UK Construction PMI — Slightly above forecast at 46.1 (vs 45.2), but still below 50 and in contraction territory.
- → Index-linked Gilt auction — 2035 tap cleared at 1.86% (prior: 1.73%), indicating some upward pressure in real yields.
- → Global backdrop — News flow dominated by oil market tightness and ongoing focus on high global yields; no single clear driver in today's inputs.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 07:00 — Lloyds House Price Index YoY (forecast: -0.20%) and MoM (forecast: +0.20%).
- → Tomorrow 10:00 — BBA Mortgage Rate (forecast: 6.60%); Gilt auctions (2031, 2028).
- → Tomorrow 19:00 (USD) — FOMC Minutes (HIGH impact, global rates focus).
A quiet PM reset with only marginal moves; attention now shifts to tomorrow’s UK housing data and US FOMC minutes for the next cues.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all afternoons were this uneventful.