PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have shifted lower across the curve at the AM reset, with long-dated tenors down by 5bp and the 10–15y sector 4bp lower.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: broad-based decline, long end down 5bp, belly 4bp lower, no single news driver.
Long end leads as PWLB rates drop 4–5bp — curve shifts lower
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.50% | +1bp |
| 3y | 5.83% | unch |
| 5y | 6.01% | -1bp |
| 10y | 6.38% | -4bp |
| 25y | 6.85% | -5bp |
| 50y | 6.55% | -5bp |
Parallel shift lower, with the long end and 10–25y sector leading the move down.
What Moved
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates both down 5bp, leading the decline.
- → Belly — 10y, 12y, and 15y all 4bp lower, marking a broad move.
- → Front end — 1y up 1bp, 3y unchanged, 5y down 1bp; little movement at the short end.
Context
- → UK data — BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY: 1.0% (forecast 0.70%, previous 0.50%), slightly stronger than expected but not a major market mover.
- → Macro news — IMF upgrades UK growth outlook but warns of persistent inflation; no single headline driving today's move.
- → Market tone — News flow is broad but not directly moving gilts; curve shift appears technical.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY: 1.0% (forecast 0.70%, previous 0.50%) — marginally stronger, but not enough to offset the downward move in rates.
Remaining Today
- → 15:00 USD Existing Home Sales: Forecast 3.96M (previous 3.98M) — may influence global rates if a surprise emerges.
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 2026-10-15 07:00: GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
- → Wed 2026-10-15 07:00: GBP GDP 3-Month Avg — Forecast: 0.50%
- → Wed 2026-10-15 07:00: GBP Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The AM PWLB reset sees a clear downward shift, with 10–50y rates falling by 4–5bp and the long end leading the move. This is the largest parallel drop in recent sessions and brings long-dated rates back below 6.90%. No single headline is driving the move; the shift appears technical, with UK data and news flow offering little resistance. If you are monitoring for the next reset, note that the current window is meaningfully lower than yesterday's closes.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council's chart of accounts.