PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed this morning, with only minor moves of -1bp at select long maturities and the 2-year.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates are broadly unchanged, with a -1bp move in the 2y, 25y, 40y, and 50y buckets; all other key tenors are flat.
PWLB curve holds steady as markets await US inflation data
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.49% | unch |
| 3y | 5.82% | unch |
| 5y | 6.00% | unch |
| 10y | 6.38% | unch |
| 25y | 6.84% | -1bp |
| 50y | 6.54% | -1bp |
Curve is essentially unchanged, with a minor parallel shift lower at the long end.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
Context
- → No major UK data released so far today — BoE Governor Bailey and MPC members spoke this morning, but no new policy signals were reported.
- → Market focus is on US CPI at 13:30 — This is expected to be the main driver for global rates later today.
- → News flow is light for UK rates — No material headlines affecting gilts or BoE policy this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30 USD Core Inflation Rate MoM: Forecast 0.20% (Prev 0.30%)
- → 13:30 USD Core Inflation Rate YoY: Forecast 2.50% (Prev 2.40%)
- → 13:30 USD Inflation Rate YoY: Forecast 3.60% (Prev 3.40%)
- → 13:30 USD Inflation Rate MoM: Forecast 0.60% (Prev 0.40%)
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 2026-10-15 07:00: GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
- → Thu 2026-10-15 13:30: USD PPI MoM — Forecast: 0.50%
- → Thu 2026-10-15 13:30: USD Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have barely moved at the AM reset, with only a -1bp adjustment at the 2y, 25y, 40y, and 50y points. The curve remains stable and there is no material shift in borrowing costs this morning. Main focus is now on this afternoon's US inflation data, which could set the tone for the next reset. Stay alert for any sharp moves after 13:30 if US CPI surprises.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here, still watching, still not impressed by a 1bp move.