PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates edged down by 1–2bp across the curve at the 12:20 reset; moves remain modest.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:20 PM reset saw small declines across all key maturities; little changed overall.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.52% (-1bp)
- → 3y — 5.85% (-2bp)
- → 5y — 6.02% (-2bp)
- → 10y — 6.36% (-1bp)
- → 25y — 6.75% (-2bp)
- → 50y — 6.43% (-2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Mild curve shift — All key tenors fell by 1–2bp, with the belly and long end both down 2bp, and the front end slightly firmer at -1bp.
CONTEXT
- → UK data — CBI Business Optimism Index came in at -27 (vs forecast -38), and CBI Industrial Trends Orders at -32 (vs forecast -20); both remain negative, with orders notably weaker than expected.
- → Market backdrop — News flow highlights ongoing inflation concerns linked to higher oil prices and Middle East tensions, but no single clear driver for today's modest gilt rally.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 21:00 — BoE Braddick Speech (LOW impact).
- → Tomorrow 00:01 — GfK Consumer Confidence (MEDIUM, forecast: -15).
- → Tomorrow 07:00 — Retail Sales MoM (HIGH, forecast: -0.10%).
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — S&P Global Services PMI Flash (HIGH, forecast: 51.8).
A quiet PM reset—rates drifted lower but no fireworks; eyes now turn to tomorrow's UK retail sales and PMI data for the next steer.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every day were this straightforward; enjoy the calm while it lasts.