PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields rose across the curve today, lifting PWLB maturity rates to new cycle highs despite weak domestic retail sales and consumer confidence data.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
- → 2y: 4.747% (+3bp) — Short end rose, but less than the belly and long end.
- → 5y: 4.988% (+4bp) — Belly saw a notable increase.
- → 10y: 5.299% (+5bp) — Largest move on the curve, with the 10y leading.
- → 30y: 5.758% (+3bp) — Long end also higher, but less than the 10y.
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.51% | +2bp |
| 5y | 6.00% | +1bp |
| 10y | 6.33% | +1bp |
| 25y | 6.71% | +1bp |
| 50y | 6.38% | +1bp |
WHAT DROVE TODAY
- → UK retail sales (Sep): -0.40% MoM (Forecast: -0.10%, Prev: +0.70%) — notably weaker than expected.
- → GfK Consumer Confidence: -24 (Forecast: -15, Prev: -13) — sharp deterioration.
- → Global context: Newsflow focused on surging oil prices (Brent above $115/bbl) and Middle East tensions, stoking inflation concerns.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → PWLB rates ended at new cycle highs — all key maturities up by +1–2bp, tracking the gilt market.
- → Borrowing costs for local authorities increased further — especially in the 10–20y sector, where gilts rose most.
- → Market moves occurred despite weak UK data — suggesting global inflation and geopolitical concerns dominated.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Monday 11:00: CBI Distributive Trades (Forecast: -50)
PWLB rates closed higher across the curve, reflecting persistent upward pressure in gilts amid global inflation and geopolitical risks.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.