Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:30am, 2 March 2026

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

Gilts Snapshot

• 1y: 3.555% (+3bp) — front end slightly firmer
• 10y: 4.317% (+1bp) — belly stable
• 30y: 5.036% (+2bp) — long end marginally higher

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.47% (-3bp from current)
• 5y: predicted 4.75% (-3bp from current)
• 10y: predicted 5.32% (-2bp from current)
• 20y: predicted 5.89% (-2bp from current)
• 30y: predicted 6.01% (-2bp from current)
• 50y: predicted 5.79% (-2bp from current)

What’s Driving This

• Geopolitical headlines (US-Israel/Iran conflict, oil price surge) dominate news flow, but UK gilt yields are only modestly higher.
• UK economic data releases this morning were close to expectations and have not materially shifted market direction.
• No single clear driver in today’s inputs.

Calendar

• Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — 1.0% (Actual) vs 1.1% (Forecast) vs 1.0% (Prev) — (MED) — In line, signals steady property market
• Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — 0.3% (Actual) vs 0.3% (Forecast) vs 0.3% (Prev) — (MED) — No surprise, neutral for gilts
• Mortgage Lending — £4.08B (Actual) vs £4.20B (Forecast) vs £4.49B (Prev) — (MED) — Slightly below, but not a major miss
• Mortgage Approvals — 60k (Actual) vs 62.5k (Forecast) vs 61.01k (Prev) — (MED) — Slight miss, but not market-moving
• BoE Consumer Credit — £1.81B (Actual) vs £1.20B (Forecast) vs £1.65B (Prev) — (MED) — Above forecast, but not a key driver

• 12:30 — BoE Taylor Speech — (LOW) — Unlikely to affect 12:30 reset

• Tomorrow — Spring Economic Statement — (MED) — May be relevant for gilts post-reset

PWLB rates are expected to see a small downward adjustment at 12:30, with no significant market catalyst evident so far today.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.