Morning Rate Update

PWLB Interest Rate Update – 2 March 2026, 11:29

Short-dated PWLB rates saw a notable upward move, while the rest of the curve was little changed.

PWLB Snapshot

• 1y: 4.50% (+5bp)
• 3y: 4.58% (+2bp)
• 5y: 4.78% (+2bp)
• 10y: 5.34% (unch)
• 25y: 6.00% (unch)
• 50y: 5.81% (unch)

What Moved

• Front end led the move: 1y rate rose +5bp, with 2–5y up 2–3bp.
• Longer maturities (10y+): Unchanged across the curve.

Context

• UK data: February Nationwide house prices +0.3% MoM (in line), +1.0% YoY (just below forecast). Mortgage lending and approvals both slightly below expectations.
• Global backdrop: Middle East conflict escalated, driving oil prices up sharply and weighing on global risk sentiment. UK and European equities fell, while safe-haven demand lifted gold and the US dollar.
• Market reaction: Short-end gilt yields rose modestly, reflecting increased volatility and inflation concerns linked to energy prices.

Watchlist (Next 48 Hours)

• Today 12:30: BoE Taylor speech (LOW impact)
• Tomorrow: UK Spring Economic Statement (MED impact)
• Thursday 09:30: S&P Global Construction PMI (MED impact, forecast: 47)
• Friday 07:00: Halifax House Price Index (MED impact, forecast: 1.1%)

PWLB rates remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and upcoming UK fiscal events.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.