End of Day Wrap-Up

UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, resulting in a broad increase in PWLB maturity rates.

GILT MOVE SUMMARY

• 2y: 3.724% (+8bp) — Front-end yields rose, reflecting heightened risk sentiment.
• 10y: 4.471% (+9bp) — Belly of the curve saw a similar move higher.
• 20y: 5.104% (+9bp) — Long-dated yields climbed in line with the rest of the curve.
• 50y: 4.755% (+8bp) — Long end followed the upward shift, maintaining curve shape.

PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT

• 1y: 4.71% (+4bp)
• 5y: 5.00% (+6bp)
• 10y: 5.54% (+7bp)
• 25y: 6.17% (+6bp)
• 50y: 5.99% (+7bp)

WHAT DROVE TODAY

• Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East — News of the US and Israel launching missile attacks on Iran, subsequent retaliation, and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to surging oil and gas prices and global market volatility. This was widely cited as the primary driver of risk-off sentiment and higher yields.
• UK Spring Economic Statement — The Chancellor’s update included a downgraded UK growth forecast for 2026 (OBR now expects 1.1%) and highlighted ongoing inflation risks, but did not deliver major new fiscal measures. The statement coincided with, but did not appear to offset, the broader market move.
• No significant UK data releases today beyond the Spring Statement and BRC Shop Price Inflation (Actual: 1.1%, Forecast: 1.7%, Previous: 1.5%).

WHAT THIS MEANS

• Borrowing costs rose across all maturities, with the largest increases seen in the 10–50 year range.
• PWLB rates are now 4–7bp higher than yesterday, reflecting the parallel upward shift in gilt yields.
• Market volatility and geopolitical risk are currently the dominant influences on funding conditions.

NEXT ON THE DIARY

• Tomorrow 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Services PMI Final (Forecast: 53.9)
• Tomorrow 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Forecast: 53.9)

Market conditions remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, with borrowing rates reflecting heightened risk aversion.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.