Morning Rate Update

PWLB Rates: Notable Downward Shift Across Curve

PWLB Snapshot

• 1y: 4.66% (-5bp)
• 3y: 4.76% (-6bp)
• 5y: 4.95% (-5bp)
• 10y: 5.51% (-3bp)
• 25y: 6.16% (-1bp)
• 50y: 5.97% (-2bp)

What Moved

• Front-end and belly of the curve saw notable declines, with 1–5 year rates down 5–6bp.
• 10-year and longer maturities moved lower by 1–3bp, with the largest moves concentrated at the short end.
• Curve flattening observed as short-dated rates fell more sharply than long-dated rates.

Context

• No significant UK data releases today; only low-impact PMI figures published.
• Global news dominated by Middle East conflict, driving volatility in energy and equity markets, but no direct UK gilt-specific developments reported.
• Market sentiment appears risk-averse amid geopolitical uncertainty, but no UK-specific macro catalyst identified.

Watchlist (Next 24–48 Hours)

• Tomorrow 09:30: GBP S&P Global Construction PMI (MED impact), forecast 47 (prev 46.4)
• Friday: GBP Halifax House Price Index (MED impact), forecast 1.1% (prev 1.0%)
• Friday: GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (MED impact), forecast -0.1% (prev 0.7%)

PWLB rates have moved lower, particularly at the front end, amid a backdrop of global market volatility and limited domestic data flow.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.