Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:30am, 4 March 2026

Gilt yields are lower across the curve so far today; PWLB reset predictions point to a moderate downward move at 12:30.

Gilts Snapshot

• 2y: 3.709% (-3bp) — front-end down
• 15y: 4.878% (-5bp) — belly leads decline
• 30y: 5.169% (-1bp) — long end relatively stable

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.60% (-6bp from current)
• 5y: predicted 4.90% (-5bp from current)
• 10y: predicted 5.46% (-5bp from current)
• 20y: predicted 6.02% (-6bp from current)
• 30y: predicted 6.14% (-4bp from current)
• 50y: predicted 5.91% (-6bp from current)

What’s Driving This

• No single clear driver in today’s inputs; moves follow global risk-off sentiment and energy market volatility, but UK-specific data and news offer no direct catalyst.

Calendar

• Releases so far today:
  • S&P Global Services PMI Final — Actual: 53.9 vs Forecast: 53.9 vs Previous: 54 — (LOW impact) — In line, no surprise for gilts
  • S&P Global Composite PMI Final — Actual: 53.7 vs Forecast: 53.9 vs Previous: 53.7 — (LOW impact) — Unchanged, no market impact
• Still due today: None scheduled for the remainder of today.
• Next 48 hours (HIGH impact only): Calendar is light over the next 48 hours.

PWLB rates are set to reset lower at 12:30, reflecting a moderate decline in gilt yields amid ongoing global market volatility.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.