End of Day Wrap-Up

UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, resulting in a notable increase in PWLB rates at all maturities.

GILT MOVE SUMMARY

• 2y: 3.877% (+6bp) — Short end moved higher, reflecting broad upward pressure.
• 5y: 4.129% (+9bp) — Significant rise in the front and belly of the curve.
• 10y: 4.639% (+12bp) — Largest move of the day, with the belly leading the selloff.
• 30y: 5.324% (+8bp) — Long end also higher, but less pronounced than the 10y sector.

PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT

• 1y: 4.79% (+6bp)
• 5y: 5.11% (+7bp)
• 10y: 5.63% (+5bp)
• 25y: 6.24% (+4bp)
• 50y: 6.06% (+4bp)

WHAT DROVE TODAY

• No major UK economic data releases with high market impact today. The Halifax House Price Index (Actual: 1.3%, Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: 1.1%) and BBA Mortgage Rate (Actual: 6.6%, Forecast: 6.6%) were in line or slightly above expectations, but are not typically gilt market drivers.
• Market moves were dominated by global risk events: News flow highlighted a sharp selloff in gilts and global bonds on renewed inflation fears, driven by the escalation of war in Iran and a surge in oil and gas prices. Commentary repeatedly referenced the impact of energy market disruption and fading hopes for near-term central bank rate cuts.

WHAT THIS MEANS

• Borrowing costs rose materially across all PWLB maturities.
• The increase was most pronounced in the 2–10 year sector, but all tenors saw higher rates.
• Today’s moves reflect a significant tightening in local authority funding conditions versus yesterday.

NEXT ON THE DIARY

• Tuesday 00:01: GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Forecast: 1.1%)
• Thursday 00:01: GBP RICS House Price Balance (Forecast: -0.08)
• Thursday 09:30: GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Markets ended the week with a marked repricing of risk and inflation expectations, leaving local authority borrowers facing higher funding rates across the curve.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.