Morning Rate Update

PWLB Interest Rate Update – 09:35, 9 March 2026

PWLB fixed rates have risen sharply across all maturities, with increases of 9–22bp following significant market volatility.

PWLB Snapshot

• 1y: 5.00% (+21bp)
• 3y: 5.14% (+22bp)
• 5y: 5.31% (+20bp)
• 10y: 5.79% (+16bp)
• 25y: 6.34% (+10bp)
• 50y: 6.15% (+9bp)

What Moved

• Front end and belly: Largest increases, with 1–5 year rates up 20–22bp.
• Long end: Gains moderate to 9–10bp for 25–50 year maturities.
• Curve steepening: Short-dated rates rose more than long-dated, reflecting a pronounced steepening.

Context

• No significant UK data releases so far today.
• Global markets are highly volatile as oil prices surged above $100–$110 per barrel due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, disrupting energy supplies and driving inflation concerns.
• Bond yields have risen globally as investors price in higher inflation and uncertainty, with UK gilts moving in line with international trends.
• News flow is dominated by energy market disruption and risk-off sentiment across equities and bonds.

Watchlist (Next 48 Hours)

• Tomorrow 00:01: GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY – Forecast: 1.1% (Previous: 2.3%)
• Thursday 00:01: GBP RICS House Price Balance – Forecast: -0.08 (Previous: -0.10)
• Thursday 09:30: GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech
• Friday 07:00: GBP Manufacturing Production MoM – Forecast: 0.2% (Previous: -0.5%)

PWLB rates have moved significantly in response to global market turmoil and energy price shocks. Please monitor official sources for further updates.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.