Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:30am, 6 March 2026

UK gilt yields have risen sharply across the curve so far today, pointing to a notable upward reset at 12:30.

Gilts Snapshot

• 2y: 3.906% (+9bp) — Front-end sharply higher
• 10y: 4.616% (+11bp) — Belly leads gains
• 30y: 5.292% (+5bp) — Long end firmer, but less pronounced

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.79% (+6bp from current)
• 5y: predicted 5.09% (+5bp from current)
• 10y: predicted 5.62% (+4bp from current)
• 20y: predicted 6.17% (+3bp from current)
• 30y: predicted 6.27% (+3bp from current)
• 50y: predicted 6.05% (+3bp from current)

What’s Driving This

• Escalating Middle East conflict has driven global bond yields higher, with UK gilts tracking the move amid surging energy prices and shipping disruptions (multiple sources: Bloomberg, FT, City AM).
• Oil and gas prices have spiked to multi-year highs as the Strait of Hormuz faces a near-total shipping halt, stoking inflation concerns and tightening financial conditions.
• Mortgage rates are rising in the UK, with lenders citing increased funding costs linked to geopolitical risk and higher wholesale rates (BBC, Guardian).
• No single domestic data release is a clear driver; moves are primarily geopolitically driven.

Calendar

A) Releases so far today

• Halifax House Price Index YoY — Actual: 1.3% vs Forecast: 1.1% vs Previous: 1.1% — (MED impact) — Slightly above expectations, but not a major gilt driver today
• Halifax House Price Index MoM — Actual: 0.3% vs Forecast: -0.1% vs Previous: 0.8% — (MED impact) — Above forecast, but overshadowed by global factors
• BBA Mortgage Rate — Actual: 6.6% vs Forecast: 6.6% vs Previous: 6.6% — (LOW impact) — Unchanged, minimal market effect

B) Still due today

• No further GBP high/medium impact releases scheduled before or after the 12:30 reset

C) Next 48 hours (HIGH impact only)

• Friday 07:00 — GBP Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: -0.8%

Close

Gilt yields are notably higher across all key maturities this morning, with the 12:30 PWLB reset expected to reflect these moves amid ongoing geopolitical and energy market pressures.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.