Morning Rate Update

PWLB Interest Rate Update – 6 March 2026, 09:35

PWLB fixed rates rose notably across all maturities, with increases of 5–9bp following heightened global market volatility.

PWLB Snapshot

• 1y: 4.73% (+8bp)
• 3y: 4.85% (+9bp)
• 5y: 5.04% (+9bp)
• 10y: 5.58% (+7bp)
• 25y: 6.20% (+5bp)
• 50y: 6.02% (+5bp)

What Moved

• Front end and belly: Largest increases seen in 1–7 year maturities (+8 to +9bp).
• Long end: 25–50 year rates up by 5bp, smaller than short and medium tenors.
• Curve shape: Upward shift across the curve, with the most pronounced moves at the short and intermediate end.

Context

• Halifax House Price Index (Feb): +1.3% y/y (Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: 1.1%) and +0.3% m/m (Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: 0.8%). Both above expectations.
• Global news: Middle East conflict has led to a near-halt in Strait of Hormuz shipping, driving energy prices sharply higher and increasing market volatility.
• Market reaction: Reports highlight surging oil and gas prices, with IMF warning of inflation risks from persistent energy shocks.
• No other significant UK macro news released so far today.

Watchlist (Next 24–48 Hours)

• Today 10:00: GBP BBA Mortgage Rate (Forecast: 6.6%)
• Thursday 07:00 (13 Mar): GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (Forecast: -0.8%)

PWLB rates have moved sharply higher amid global market stress and energy price surges, with the largest increases at the front and belly of the curve.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.