Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:30am, 9 March 2026

UK gilt yields have surged across the curve this morning, implying a sharp upward reset for PWLB rates at 12:30.

Gilts Snapshot

• 2y: 4.132% (+26bp) — front-end sharply higher
• 10y: 4.749% (+17bp) — belly up strongly
• 30y: 5.382% (+6bp) — long end firmer but less extreme

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.98% (-2bp from current)
• 5y: predicted 5.28% (-3bp from current)
• 10y: predicted 5.75% (-4bp from current)
• 20y: predicted 6.27% (-1bp from current)
• 30y: predicted 6.34% (-2bp from current)
• 50y: predicted 6.15% (unch from current)

What’s Driving This

• Newsflow highlights a global bond selloff as oil prices surge above $100/bbl due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, reviving inflation fears and expectations of higher rates.
• UK commentary specifically notes a sharp rise in government borrowing costs and a 14bp jump in 10y gilt yields this morning.
• Market coverage attributes moves to stagflation concerns and a global flight from bonds and equities.
• No single clear domestic data release is driving today’s move; direction is set by global events and risk sentiment.

Calendar

• Releases so far today: None reported.
• Still due today: None scheduled before or after the 12:30 reset.
• Next 48 hours (HIGH impact):
  • Tuesday 00:01 — GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Forecast: 1.1%
  • Friday 07:00 — GBP Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: 0.2%

Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and energy prices; borrowers should expect continued volatility around resets.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.