Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:30am, 10 March 2026

Gilts have rallied sharply across the curve this morning; PWLB reset predictions point to a notable downward move at 12:30.

Gilts Snapshot

• 2y: 3.902% (-12bp) — front-end leads the rally
• 10y: 4.587% (-9bp) — belly follows, significant drop
• 30y: 5.258% (-5bp) — long end firmer, but less pronounced

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.76% (unch)
• 5y: predicted 5.08% (+1bp)
• 10y: predicted 5.61% (+3bp)
• 20y: predicted 6.14% (+2bp)
• 30y: predicted 6.24% (+2bp)
• 50y: predicted 6.01% (+1bp)

What’s Driving This

• Newsflow highlights a sharp retreat in oil prices and easing energy market fears after US President Trump indicated the Iran conflict could end soon, supporting a global bond rally.
• European and UK government bonds are firmer as inflation concerns recede with the drop in energy prices.
• No single UK-specific data driver; moves are part of a broader global relief rally.

Calendar

• Release so far today: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Actual: 0.7% vs Forecast: 1.1% vs Previous: 2.3% (MED impact) — Below expectations; signals softer UK retail activity, but not a major gilt driver today.
• Still due today: None scheduled for the remainder of today.
• Next 48 hours (HIGH impact):
  • Friday 07:00 — GBP Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: 0.2%

Gilts are firmer on the day, with the PWLB reset likely to reflect this relief rally at midday; no major UK-specific catalyst is evident.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.