Morning Rate Update

PWLB Rates: Significant Downward Shift Across the Curve

PWLB Snapshot

• 1y: 4.76% (-19bp)
• 3y: 4.89% (-22bp)
• 5y: 5.07% (-21bp)
• 10y: 5.58% (-17bp)
• 25y: 6.20% (-13bp)
• 50y: 6.00% (-14bp)

What Moved

• Front-end and belly: Largest declines seen in 1–7 year tenors, with moves of -19bp to -22bp.
• Long-end: 25–50 year rates also fell, but by a smaller margin (-13bp to -14bp).
• Curve shape: Parallel downward shift, with slightly larger moves at the short and medium maturities.

Context

• Data: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY actual 0.7% (forecast 1.1%, previous 2.3%)—below expectations.
• News: Global bond yields fell as oil prices retreated sharply from recent highs, easing inflation concerns. European and UK government bonds rallied in response.
• Market drivers: Relief in energy markets following US statements suggesting the Iran conflict may end soon, prompting a reversal of the previous surge in yields.

Watchlist (Next 48 Hours)

• Thursday: GBP RICS House Price Balance (forecast: -0.08, previous: -0.10)
• Thursday: GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech
• Friday 07:00: GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (forecast: 0.2%, previous: -0.5%)

PWLB rates have moved sharply lower, tracking the global bond rally as energy price pressures ease and market sentiment stabilises.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.