PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, driving a modest increase in long-dated PWLB rates, while short and medium PWLB tenors were little changed or slightly lower.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
- → 2y: 4.09% (+7bp) — front-end yields rose, but less than the long end.
- → 10y: 4.79% (+10bp) — belly moved in line with the curve, reflecting broad upward pressure.
- → 30y: 5.46% (+12bp) — long-end led the move, with the largest increase on the day.
- → 50y: 5.03% (+10bp) — significant upward shift in ultra-long yields.
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.88% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.21% | -1bp |
| 10y | 5.73% | unch |
| 25y | 6.34% | unch |
| 50y | 6.16% | +1bp |
WHAT DROVE TODAY
- → Geopolitical risk and oil shock — News flow was dominated by the ongoing Iran war, with Brent crude closing above $100 and the IEA warning of the largest supply disruption in oil market history. This fuelled global inflation concerns and drove yields higher.
- → No significant UK data surprises — The only notable UK release, RICS Housing Survey (-12 vs forecast -9, prior -10), was weaker than expected but had limited market impact.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → Long-dated borrowing costs edged higher — 50y PWLB up (+1bp), with 30–40y also rising.
- → Short and medium PWLB rates were steady to lower — 1y (-2bp), 5y (-1bp), 10y and 25y unchanged.
- → Yield curve steepened — Gilt moves were led by the long end, increasing the cost differential between short and long-term borrowing.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → 07:00 Friday — GDP Estimate MM (Forecast: +0.2%)
- → 07:00 Friday — GDP Est 3M/3M (Forecast: +0.3%)
Borrowing conditions for local authorities ended the day somewhat less favourable at the long end, with short and medium rates steady or slightly improved.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.